Normalcy after COVID, Productivity in a COVID world and a quick take on Apple’s new toy

I’m not sure we will ever go back to the normal we used to have. But I do think we should read that more as an opportunity to do something new. In today’s newsletter, I discuss why that is. Some interesting early research from Microsoft about productivity in a COVID-19 world and a personal take on Apple’s new iPad Magic Keyboard and the “job” it’s trying to do.

On to the issue.

Share The Future is Digital

A quick note about the presentation I’m putting together. It’s nearly complete and I’ll be communicating about it soon. There’s a sneak preview in the footer if you’re interested. I’ll have news of an additional workshop soon, too. 🤫

Is the new normal going to be, well, normal?

Let’s be fair. I don’t think anyone can say with any certainty that things are going to get back to the way they were. History often teaches us that. After the previous World Wars, the economy, the mental health and the industrial needs had all changed irreversibly. Our after-pandemic world will be as changed as those worlds were, but for different reasons. Like those who dealt with their circumstances, our new world has been thrust upon us without request. It is now up to us to modify our behaviour to adapt; SARS-COV-2 is not going to accommodate us.

One thing we can say with some degree of certainty is that without an efficient vaccine we are not going back to a free to move society — as in being able to walk around anywhere, gather, meet, shop — sorry Anti-Vaxxers (2). And, even if we were to produce a vaccine ready for generalised vaccination in the whole population in the next couple of months (no, it’s not going to happen), there is no telling currently how mutation might affect its efficacy. For reference, you need to get your flu jab every year because of mutation or Antigenic Drift. The list of flu viruses included in the flu jab is actually longer than you might think. There are four types of flu, but only types A and B interest us. The current coronavirus taking the world by storm is a Type A virus and is not the only one to exist. What that means is that another pandemic-inducing virus is always just around the corner. Type B viruses are what we colloquially call seasonal flu, and they have many sub-types and mutations, hence the requirement for renewing your jab once-a-year.

Bearing all this in mind, the question then is, how do we live with the virus and the threat of new viruses? This is, in part, being discussed and tested all around the world. Steps like progressively loosening lockdown, targeted testing, tracking systems (perhaps privacy-violating?) and precise isolation are all on the table for debate, which brings us back to the initial proposition. Is the new normal going to be normal?

Well, in a word no. Or at least, not for the foreseeable future. I won’t be so presumptuous as to predict when and if this will end, but I do know that habits and changing and that the longer those habits are anchored (admittedly by Force Majeure), the longer they have a chance to become the new normal.

What COVID-19 did to productivity for one team in Microsoft

However, a fundamental business transformation that has been thrust upon us and forced us to react urgently just to keep things ticking over is not necessarily business transformation for good. It will only be revealed further down the line how much COVID-19 has affected business. The following tweet does, however, present an interesting and amusing comment on the situation, and is totally in the wheelhouse of this newsletter:

Source: unidentified

Interesting feedback and research are being gathered by all the most prominent software solution providers, like Microsoft, and regularly published freely to help businesses across the globe cope with the pandemic and implement meaningful change that may help them going forward. Let’s have a look at some numbers and initial conclusions.

Using telemetry data collected from their networks, Microsoft has analysed its working practices given that for some groups, they immediately transitioned to a 100 per cent working from home situation. One particular team, dedicated to digital transformation and the way the modern workplace is affected, got to run the experiment in their own back yard. With 300 employees in the group, it is statistically sound research. Some biases are to be expected, being that the group is devoted to digitally transforming the way we all work in groups. Still, conventional wisdom would have us believe that this fracture of proximity would cause a complete breakdown in collaboration. Surprisingly that didn’t happen. And, through sentiment surveys, data showed that in some ways the group felt closer together than before the lockdown. The constraints seem to have lead to more creativity in the way the team socialised and communicated.

Microsoft found that weekly meeting time jumped 10 per cent for the group, translating to around three extra meetings per week per employee. With approximately 70 per cent experiencing increases in meetings, regardless of function. Suggesting that the chance “meetings” that were had in the hallway, refectory or the environs provoked intentional online meetings to recreate that feeling.

Uncovered by further investigation, was a change in meeting length. Twenty-two per cent increase in shorter meetings and 11 per cent fewer longer meetings. Shorter meetings are defined as 30 minutes or less and longer meetings defined as longer than an hour. No official guidance had been issued to the group and the results had apparently developed organically over the early stages of confinement.

In another surprise finding, the team uncovered a tendency for more one-to-one meetings to be held, ostensibly for quick check-ins (“Hey, how’s it going?”) and scheduled social events through video. There is much work to be done to understand the impacts fully. Still, given the context of pre-COVID meetings proliferating and increasing in length, negatively impacting productivity and happiness, some positive benefits may have naturally emerged as a result of the lockdown. In a way, the team had auto-dosed just the right amount of meetings once freed from corporate imposition.

You can read a more detailed write up here.

Some thoughts about the iPad and the jobs to be done

I’ve been thinking about the new iPad Magic Keyboard (iPad MK) and have a couple of thoughts I’d like to share. I get it, I really do. I’m someone who instinctively wants the newest and best, as ADD tends to do. But this time, I just can’t quite see the use for me based on the setup I’m currently using. Oh, of course, I can clearly see why others would want it and find it the dog’s nuts to use—more power to you.

There seems to be a couple of required compromises to get the best out of it. Compromises I don’t need to make with my favoured solution; a Magic Keyboard (MKB) and Canopy from Studio Neat. On the face of it, it does all the things that the iPad MK can, minus the different viewing angles. But I feel it goes much further, let me explain.

I can use the iPad in or out of a case, detach it easily. It features a full-sized keyboard, with Function keys, Multimedia keys and a real Esc key. It folds away neatly and is lighter than the iPad MK with the KB in it. If the KB dies, buy a new one and plop it in, 100$ tops.

As I said, it lacks different viewing angles, but it also requires what might be the real issue for some, the trackpad—solved by having a Magic Trackpad along for the ride for an, admittedly, extra 130$. That’s a total of 270$ (the Canopy is 40$), with each part easily replaceable, without throwing out the baby with the bathwater. If you’re a mouse user, like me, it’s even cheaper than that. Oh, BTW, it’s lighter too, at only 393g as opposed to around 1/2 a kilo for the 11” version, if I’ve understood John Gruber’s article. What is also of note, is that transitioning from iPad to iMac requires no readjustment. It’s the same KB, size of keys, feel, angle, everything is the same.

One thing that is less than optimal is that it requires sliding three items in a bag instead of one, I guess increasing the risk of loss. But the MKB in the Canopy is so slim, just like the Mouse/Trackpad, that I don’t even notice it. Often, I’m in a meeting and only need to take handwritten notes with the pencil, so the KB and Mouse stay in the bag until I need them. Getting them out when needed, is little bother.

Another point that, is for me, is important, and it is perhaps, the elephant in the room for the iPad MK. It doesn’t allow use in portrait mode. With the Canopy there’s no such restriction, even putting the iPad in “upside-down-portrait” to gain access to the USB-C connector. 

Lastly, and not unimportantly for some, if you want to move to or from a different sized iPad, no problem with the Canopy + MKB. It still works.

And that’s the point. We all have different needs and wants. The iPad is there for them all. I’m clearly an exception, and Apple has done the groundwork to target the sweet spot of the jobs that users are trying to get done. It has done it elegantly and mindful of the fact that those that do adhere are immensely satisfied. Chatting with others on a Slack group, this was the overall message I got from them.

I think it is just about perfect for most people, just not me. To be fair, I probably wrote this just to stop me buying one 😜.

The Future is Digital Newsletter is intended for anyone interested in Digital Technologies and how it affects their business. I’d really appreciate if you could forward it to people you feel are interested. If this email was forwarded to you, I’d love to see you on board. You can sign up here:

Sign up now

Visit the website to read all the archives.

Thanks for being a supporter, have a great day.

––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

1 "A Change Is Gonna Come" is a song by American recording artist Sam Cooke. It initially appeared on Cooke's album Ain't That Good News, released mid-February 1964 by RCA Victor, via https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Change_Is_Gonna_Come

2 Nothing to do with DEC’s mainframe computers ;-)

A request for interest

Good morning. I'm putting together a presentation about how you can kickstart your innovation and digital transformation in your business post-COVID-19, using simple tools.

We know that many businesses in the world have been caught off-guard and will have serious difficulties in the coming months, none more so than businesses in the Caribbean (for reasons I have discussed ).

I would like to show you a couple of simple tools that will transform the way you understand your products and services, that may lead you to develop better outcomes in the post-pandemic world.

Drop a like or a comment and I'll set a date early next week if you're interested. It'll be worthwhile, trust me. 😀

If you enjoy The Future is Digital, please share it with people you feel might be interested 👇

Share The Future is Digital

Visit the website to read all the archives.

Thanks for being a supporter, have a great day.

Zoom follow-up, Hacks and Scams in the age of COVID-19, the death of cash and a history lesson in Data Visualisation

A mixed bag today. In this issue, I highlight a few things that have been on my mind, starting with a follow-up to Zoom’s trials and tribulations in securing its product.

I hope you enjoy this. Feel free to share, er …virally.

Share

Zoom follow-up

Following a worldwide backlash and the possibility of being investigated by the authorities in several countries, Zoom CEO, Eric Yuan, stated on the Zoom blog on April 1st (and no, it is not an April Fool’s Joke): 

To our Zoom users around the world,

Whether you are a global corporation that needs to maintain business continuity, a local government agency working to keep your community functioning, a school teacher educating students remotely, or a friend that wants to host a happy hour to spark some joy while social distancing, you are all managing through unique challenges brought upon by this global health crisis. During this time of isolation, we at Zoom feel incredibly privileged to be in a position to help you stay connected. 

We also feel an immense responsibility. Usage of Zoom has ballooned overnight – far surpassing what we expected when we first announced our desire to help in late February. This includes over 90,000 schools across 20 countries that have taken us up on our offer to help children continue their education remotely. To put this growth in context, as of the end of December last year, the maximum number of daily meeting participants, both free and paid, conducted on Zoom was approximately 10 million. In March this year, we reached more than 200 million daily meeting participants, both free and paid. We have been working around the clock to ensure that all of our users – new and old, large and small – can stay in touch and operational. 

For the past several weeks, supporting this influx of users has been a tremendous undertaking and our sole focus. We have strived to provide you with uninterrupted service and the same user-friendly experience that has made Zoom the video-conferencing platform of choice for enterprises around the world, while also ensuring platform safety, privacy, and security. However, we recognize that we have fallen short of the community’s – and our own – privacy and security expectations. For that, I am deeply sorry, and I want to share what we are doing about it.

The letter went on to outline “What we’ve done” and “What we’re going to do”. TLDR; freeze development of new features to fix security flaws and work on more transparent policies.

It’s a good start and it reminds me a little of the Bill Gate’s mea-culpa letter on the security of the Windows OS, the Trustworthy Computing initiative in 2002. That letter ended with:

Going forward, we must develop technologies and policies that help businesses better manage ever larger networks of PCs, servers and other intelligent devices, knowing that their critical business systems are safe from harm. Systems will have to become self-managing and inherently resilient. We need to prepare now for the kind of software that will make this happen, and we must be the kind of company that people can rely on to deliver it.

This priority touches on all the software work we do. By delivering on Trustworthy Computing, customers will get dramatically more value out of our advances than they have in the past. The challenge here is one that Microsoft is uniquely suited to solve.

Bill Gates saw the opportunity in derision of the Operating System’s security, an OS that had come to dominate the computing industry, and he worked non-stop to make the initiative a reality.

Judge a company by what it does, not by what it says. That’s what we should all be doing with respects to Zoom currently. Time will tell if Eric Yuan is as capable as Bill Gates was back in 2002. If anything, Eric Yuan has it more comfortable as he has a model he can follow, unlike Bill Gates had back then.

Coronavirus is helping Hackers and Scammers

Unsurprisingly, hackers and general online crooks, are using the gift of COVID-19 as a platform from which to launch their nefarious plans. Proofpoint, suggests that 4 out of 5 scam emails reference COVID-19 in some way and that coronavirus-themed attacks are the main vectors in employ. Most of the attacks are phishing, account compromise attacks and spam email, with credential phishing significantly on the rise.

With many people now working from home, and with companies using outdated or just plain lousy security practices, criminals are targeting under-prepared people to gain access to systems and networks that would not ordinarily be available outside corporate walls.

Other scams that are becoming more and more prevalent are fake donation schemes, purporting to help those in need of assistance due to coronavirus; health workers and victims for example. Scams like these tend to request a donation in Bitcoin (surprise, surprise) and for nothing but the theft of money most dubiously and obnoxiously. Beware too, of key logger scams — a key logger tries to steal you keyboard presses with the hope of discovering your login and password credentials.

This document from ENISA should help you and your IT develop better practices when working from home.

Is COVID-19 the death of cash?

TLDR; No.

Since the introduction of credit cards, bank to bank transfers and now touch-less payment systems; people have long been predicting the death of cash. Something like 65 years in fact. With a new problem for the world to focus upon, many are now “building on the shoulders of giants” —I’m being sarcastic—, in predicting that COVID-19 will result in the death of cash.

The idea first appeared in a British newspaper near the end of March, in a conflation of research conducted by NIH and World Health Organisation-issued advice on the handling of cash. The WHO reiterated its already in-use policy of good hygiene practices, stating that germs can stay active for hours, even days in some circumstances on cash. And like most things in the Internet age, anything that is currently virus-related goes, well… viral.

While it is true that many buyers and suppliers of goods and services have developed a sudden aversion to cash due to the risks associated with the transmission of SARS-COV-2, there is still an attachment to cash in our part of the world that just unshakable. The tangibility of cash is just too anchored in our society for it to be removed easily, despite the pandemic. The exchange of goods tends to require a physical transfer of money. In the Caribbean, we are probably more attached to cash than our compatriots in the US or Europe, for all sorts of reasons that this newsletter is under-qualified to examine.

Anecdotally, I went to the local dump a couple of years ago to dispose of an old mattress that was replaced. The agent in the recycling centre asked if I had checked the mattress thoroughly. Perplexed, I asked him why. He replied, telling me that at the facility, they had found plenty of cash stuffed inside old mattresses and that my money would be uncovered if it was hidden. He was, of course, only half-joking.

I have personally been a fan and a proponent of a cashless society for some time. But even I admit, there cannot be only positives and that there are likely undesirable outcomes with privacy, abuse of power and the general policing of monetary circulation. But on balance, I believe that a cashless society would benefit overall, with substantial reductions in fraud, theft and significant increases in simplicity of sales, support and the lifecycle of goods. I’m not particularly worried about viruses.

Looking to the future. With the right checks and balances, purchases of goods could be linked to responsible destruction and recycling of said items after their useful lifespan has been met, with incentives for recycling or replacement products built into the entire customer journey. We already see some of this happening slowly but surely, with areas like the European Union implementing the ecotax schemes.

An ecotax (short for ecological taxation) is a tax levied on activities which are considered to be harmful to the environment and is intended to promote environmentally friendly activities via economic incentives

But to get back to the original question, it doesn’t seem likely that cashless societies will be abundant after COVID-19. Anecdotal stories tell of US citizens hoarding cash in the unlikely event of a virus-induced armageddon. Clearly, people still have a physical attachment to worth and value.

A look back in the history of data visualisation

In 1854 in Central London, just south of Oxford Street and east of Regent Street, an outbreak of cholera claimed around 500 lives. Cholera is an infection of the small intestine, leading to severe dehydration from severe diarrhoea and vomiting, and in some cases death. We now know that untreated water and food are the most common sources of cholera and are some of the prime targets in relief situations after natural disasters. Lack of municipal water leads to dehydration that prompts people to drink any water they can find, thus amplifying the dehydration and accelerating death.

Prevention is simple and often inexpensive —depending on the specific circumstances— and we know that water treatment and better sanitation can stop an outbreak in its tracks.

However, in London in 1854, water and sanitation were only just starting to become available in town. In fact, most people still got water from pumps located in the vicinity of their dwellings. A trip once a day or so to the local water pump, allowed families to cook and clean relatively safely.

When the outbreak occurred, there were suspicions that cases were located in a specific area, but scepticism and identification of the wrong source caused a delay in finding the ultimate solution. It was only when John Snow, an obstetrician by qualification, mapped the data in a now-famous infographic, that the insight was discovered and dealt with swiftly.

What was to become known as data visualisation many years after, was born. And in using this technique, the underlying reason that the actual source was identified and resolved. Located on Broad Street was one of the pumps that supplied water to the vicinity. And remember, when I’m talking about pumps in this context, I mean manual pumps with a handle that requires a person to operate it physically, placing their hands on the lever.

You may have guessed it already, but the handle itself was infected, and each person that subsequently used it got infected and spread the infection to their family. The solution, as implied, was simple too. Removing the handle dissuaded use of the particular pump and the outbreak ran its course swiftly.

At the time this theory was controversial as the water company insisted that transmission of cholera was only by air and not by other means. Cholera is transmitted through food and water, as I stated earlier. The handle, when used, got wet from the infected water in the pump and infected people as they went about their daily business. The visualisation helped understand precisely where it was happening, allowing for better observation and finding the ultimate solution. John Snow’s visualisation can be credited for inventing the practise of using data and mapping that data contextually. Data Scientists and Data Journalists use the same basic techniques that John Snow developed all those years ago.

Using simple techniques like these could be instrumental to you better understanding your business. This is just one aspect of Digital Transformation that you should employ. The Harvard Business Review published an article who’s title puts it better; Big Companies Are Embracing Analytics, But Most Still Don’t Have a Data-Driven Culture. I couldn’t agree more.

If you enjoyed this issue of The Future is Digital Newsletter I’d appreciate it if you would share it with people you feel are interested 👇

Share The Future is Digital

Visit the website to read all the archives.

Thanks for being a supporter, have a great day.

China, Taiwan and your favourite video chat apps

One of the things that us in the western hemisphere hold dear is freedom. In some countries, it is taken to an extreme by its defenders who fight for their right to do stupid and dangerous things. But that’s beside the point.

When we talk about freedom in a digital context, clearly the very definition of freedom is something that hasn’t quite been entirely resolved. More confusingly, is the fact that freedom is often grouped, incorrectly, with privacy. Your right to do something does not necessarily translate to a right to be private about what you do —depending on the country in which you live, notwithstanding.

The currently worsening worldwide pandemic is exposing what these terms really mean, and how those definitions are suffering manipulation for the benefit of beating the spread of the virus. Or are they? That’s what I wanted to discuss in this weeks’ issue.

Enjoy.

User notes: There are a lot of links in this and my other articles, click them as they offer context and help your understanding of my writings 🙏 Hint, there’s nine in this article.

Is Taiwan the model to follow?

There are two immutable facts to understand for this crisis; Taiwan has a proven record low number of cases and deaths during this spread of SARS-COV2 virus, and the official figures coming out of China are not to be trusted at all.

In fact, as many an analyst has pointed out over the last couple of weeks and months, to understand China, look at what they do, not what they say. For example, look at some of the reports emerging from China that suggest that the number of deaths is indeed something of an order of magnitude larger than official figures, with reports of crematoriums running late into the night —generally, they only work in the mornings— and the delivery of thousands of urns for cremations. A journalist that surreptitiously filmed activity in a crematorium is alleged to have gone missing, watch the report on FranceInfo for more details.

So, what has this got to do with Taiwan? Well, several things in fact. And this is where Digital Transformation has been part of the solution for Taiwan but sadly lacking in the responses to the pandemic around the world.

Let’s look at the figures for Taiwan and then try to understand why.

Looking at this we can see that Taiwan seems to have effectively “flattened the curve”, unlike pretty much all western states. With a population of 23.8 million people, cases per million people are 13.5. For comparison, Martinique is at over 300 cases per million currently, and we haven’t even reached the peak it would seem!

If you look at the how, you will see that Digital Transformation enabled this. From a basic infrastructure point of view, but also from the tracking and public information systems available to the population (and in some cases the rest of the world). An example is the eMask 2.0 system pioneered by Taiwan’s Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC). Users register using their national ID cards and can order online to pick up their masks at convenience stores and pharmacies local to them from anywhere in the country. This tweet from Audrey Tang, Taiwan’s Digital Minister, shows it in action:

Audrey Tang 唐鳳 @audreyt

The proof is in the pudding — eMask 2.0 is a GO! 🚀

🏪 1st preorders can be collected March 26 ~ April 1. 📲 2nd preorders are open until 8 p.m., March 27, via emask.taiwan.gov.tw or @MOHW_Taiwan’s NHI app.

A huge thanks to the uber-talented & hardworking eMask 2.0 team!QDcR

11:17 AM ∙ Mar 26, 2020

---

3,090Likes517Retweets

The system, additionally, helps the public understand stock levels and re-ordering dates, giving them precious knowledge that masks are available and on order, limiting panic buying and hoarding by giving the public the confidence in an integrated system that is set up to protect their health. Imagine the benefits that could be extended to other services too, like treatments for other ailments or even essential food and toiletries. In the event of a crisis — think hurricanes and earthquakes— imagine if you could be reassured that food, water and medical supplies were available in your area and being assured by a working supply chain, you might be less inclined to stock enough toilet roll to wipe your 🍑 for the next 10 years! (I’m looking at you, people in the UK!).

For a bit of background about why we’re not hearing much about this around the world, this BBC article goes into some detail about why Taiwan is excluded from the WHO by political pressure from China. It contains a link to a (frankly) shocking video shown above: 

Why Taiwan has become a problem for WHO

Your privacy after COVID-19

As housebound working-from-homers now, we are all forced to rely on services that we would not necessarily use as much prior to this pandemic. You were probably on a Zoom call over the last couple of hours or days, your child probably on a Google Hangout and in your private life, you'd possibly even toyed with using House Party.

I’ve mentioned these applications and services in a section about privacy for very good reason, as you’ll discover.

Starting with Google, if your school or school board have put in place access to this service through Google Classroom, you probably don’t have much to worry about, and in fact, if they’ve done their due diligence and used best practice configuration correctly as advised by countless consultants specialising in this field, the privacy settings in the school system will be sufficient to guard a reasonable amount of privacy for your child.

But there are some caveats to be aware of. Being in a Google Classroom means that the child intrinsically has a Google Account and that Google Account can be used for things other than Classroom. You may be surprised to learn that they can now use YouTube logged in, and therefore have all their watching habits tracked by YouTube. Sure, the School should be able to monitor this and help you keep a close eye on what they are doing, but seriously, do you think they have time for that currently?

Zoom is a different type of example, an example in poor privacy management. Last year Zoom users discovered that when the software was installed on computers, it self-installed a web server that poked through your internet router, allowing Zoom to reach in a control certain portions of your system, including the camera. The web server remained installed and active even after uninstallation of the main app. The outcry was huge, and Zoom didn’t react quickly, forcing Apple to issue a remote security patch to kill the offending server.

The damage was short-lived and Zoom managed to shake off criticism quickly whilst focusing on developing its user base. It has ramped up its MAUs significantly in the last few weeks, unsurprisingly.

However, late last week, a new privacy violation was discovered. Users on iOS who had chosen to log in using Facebook as the authentication service found that Zoom was transferring more data to Facebook than their privacy policy indicated in a possibly GDPR-breaching configuration. This time, Zoom reacted swiftly and expedited an app update on Apple’s App Store but with the disingenuous read me of “- improvements to Facebook Login”.

It is inexcusable that Zoom did not clearly state in their privacy policy what was happening, and if their statement on the fact is to be understood correctly, no one is quite sure if they even knew it was happening, suggesting an ineptitude that beggars’ belief. Ben Thompson has a much better analysis of this on Stratechery. 

As I was researching and writing this, other problematic issues have surfaced. Zoom’s meetings are not, in fact, encrypted using end-to-end encryption despite the security page stating so (see above). End-to-end encryption means something very specific. Despite what the website says, The Intercept has reported that their conference calls are encrypted but not end-to-end. The difference is important as one from is secure by design and the other is only as secure as the hosts and providers the call is passing through. I you live in a state where eavesdropping is common, Zoom will provide zero security for your meetings.

These transgressions have prompted a number of researchers to dig even deeper and other, more basic flaws, are coming out all the time; we’ve seen Zoom Bombing, where uninvited users join a call and do stupid or offensive things (don’t click the link… it’s awful). And we’ve been informed of a potentially dangerous and damaging oversight where private notes between two or more participants in a larger meeting are downloaded in clear text when any member of the meeting downloads the chat or looks at the minutes’ folder 🤦‍♂‍.

In the time I spent writing and editing this, yet another issue has been exposed; apparently they are leaking email addresses and photos to strangers!

I wanted to write about House Party’s privacy policy, but I just didn’t have the stomach 🤮 I write about this not to discourage the use of these amazing and efficient tools, but to highlight that blind adoption in a period of confusion and panic is not the best approach and it may lead to a privacy nightmare in the time after COVID-19.

But back to Taiwan, Taiwan’s policies on dealing with the crisis employs technology together with movement restriction policies to prevent the spread of this virulent disease. Taiwan tracks the location of diagnosed and suspected cases to ensure they do not leave their quarantine zone. Although they could have done this using a government created and imposed application, like the one currently being considered by the UK amongst other countries, they opted for a softer approach using the cell phone towers to triangulate where people are. The Health Ministry doesn’t have direct access to this information, only the police who have set up a dedicated working group to handle tracking and informing the relevant health system to perform site visits in the event on necessity. I think you’ll agree that this information is less nefarious than what Facebook and Google already have on you, in our “privacy-protected” world!

What you may not realise, is that in most of the counties you live in, the government already has powers to sequester this information about your (historical) whereabouts from the telecoms firms operating in those regions. Taiwan has only put this to good use for the benefit of all.

One of the things I find so frustrating, is that Taiwan has been open and forthcoming with accurate information, with a plan that has been implemented and proven to work, they have repeatedly pestered the WHO and the rest of the World to come and see for themselves and they are willing to share all of this with anyone who just asks. And what have we done? Sweet FA!

To lend credibility to Taiwan’s plan there are a couple of factors that need to be understood. One, the Vice President, Chen Chien-Jen, is an epidemiologist credited with protecting the country during the SARS outbreak in 2002/2003, and two Taiwan has appointed a “real” Digital Minister, the aforementioned Audrey Tang, a tech entrepreneur and developer who has worked in Silicon Valley. If only our Digital Ministers were digital natives!

So how do these two things relate?

Well, because Taiwan has a heap of experience and has implemented thoughtful structural change over the last twenty years, it has been able to function virtually unaffected, with privacy largely preserved —remember, it is only confirmed and suspect cases. Businesses and schools have not had to scramble to find a quick and dirty way to continue to be productive or teach children (compromising security in the meantime) and the country has built the knowledge to help any nation on earth (including China, despite the frosty relations).

Moving quickly, thoughtfully and intelligently is a key success factor in Digital Transformation we would all do well to understand what Taiwan has done. If you want to get some more ideas of where Taiwan is in their Digital Transformation, take a look at this talk given by Audrey Tang at last year’s Island Innovation Summit.

Stay Safe. STFAH.

If you enjoyed this issue of The Future is Digital Newsletter I’d appreciate it if you would share it with people you feel are interested 👇

Share The Future is Digital

Visit the website to read all the archives.

Thanks for being a supporter, have a great day. STFAH.

Caribbean Businesses need to adapt quickly and permanently

 I didn’t once mention Covid-19 … damn it… 🤦‍♂️

Don’t infect anyone. Stay indoors.

🎙Podcast version will publish tomorrow🎙

The crisis will affect the region more deeply and for longer than we realise

Like most of us, you may find you have more time on your hands than before… for all the wrong reasons. If you own or work in a Business that is not recognised as a necessity of the state —think, medical or food-related companies — you may find your Company is at a complete stand-still.

I’ve been witnessing plenty of posts on LinkedIn and email campaigns telling me they are practising Business continuity or offering free of charge help in getting you up and running for remote working. (You should take advantage now, as they’ll likely charge you a crap-ton of money soon for such services.) I’m assuming it is true and they’re all flawlessly executing their well-thought-out and well-tuned DR plans.

Putting my snark aside, I started thinking about the change that is currently forced upon businesses, and particularly those located in the Caribbean. Challenging times for any business, regardless of your location in the world.

For us here in the Caribbean, the effects are multiple and felt almost immediately. Take tourism; the numbers of cancellations or demands for reimbursement must be too frightening to look at. The knock-on effects of having no tourists affect local Businesses geared up to take tourists on day trips, eat in restaurants, buy souvenirs and countless other activities that are all revenue-generating. We know that direct and indirect revenue of global tourism was at 10.4% of global GDP in 2017, predicted to rise by 3.8% per annum over the coming years, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council in their Economic Impact 2018 report. In the Caribbean, 15.5% of total GDP in the region is attributed to tourism. 2.4 million jobs, i.e., 13.5% of the entire working population in the region, valued at 35.4 billion USD. This view is shared by an opinion piece published by CARICOM today.

Putting it in different terms, in tourism alone, around a 6th of the economy has suddenly disappeared. The effects are more wide-reaching than that too. Unlike many continents, ours is not contiguous. The closing of borders and the cancelling of flights has significant implications for not only passengers but freight. In the case of fresh fruit and vegetables that are not, or cannot be, grown locally, this put a strain on getting these supplies into local shops. Small is the number of islands in the region that can self-supply all the food necessary to feed their populations using local agriculture and food processing facilities.

What this all means, businesses in the Caribbean are going to need some severe rethink of their business models in the near future to both survive and rebound. In the near-term, developing products and services to deal with the immediate losses and then thinking through longer-term consequences and how best they can adapt to this new reality and to the long-term wants and needs of a population that wants change.

Forced change isn’t necessarily good

I’m guessing we can all agree that change is forced upon us currently. It might be the first time in your entire working career that you are working from home. You’re juggling work with home-schooling and sharing the space with your partner, both adjusting to the new norm as best you can. The regular routine is destabilised, and we are all in a state of uncertainty. I don’t know when we’re going to get through this, but I know it isn’t going to be next week. But this abrupt change in our personal lives translates to a sudden and deep change for Business too.

Here in the Caribbean, we have been used to traditional businesses that have had little incentive to change in the face of Digital Transformation. Captive audiences have enabled them to stagnate in their innovation and in their offerings to the public that comes back to buy regardless of price, availability and choice. I’m generalising, and of course, there are some innovative firms out there, but they are mostly confined to services and often have clientele throughout the region or the world.

I have been very frustrated over the last 16 years that the development of digital solutions has been severely behind the times of other countries. Sixteen years ago, I lived in the UK, and we had been ordering our groceries online and having them delivered to our flat five years before that. Yes, you read that right, over 20 years ago, supermarkets in the UK were providing online ordering and delivery to the door. You’re lucky in the French West Indies to have one pickup point, AND you’re required to drive to it yourself, IF you’re fortunate, you’ll get the time slot you want! Have they not heard of Jobs to be Done?

This is not the only industry that is decades behind. The result feeds the collective Cognitive Dissonance in the region, where we as educated and worldly exposed people (through social media and travelling) cannot understand why we don’t have access to the same things.

Let me be clear; no one is asking for 1-hour to-the-door Amazon Prime deliveries of your favourite artisan toothpaste, let’s leave that for the Hipsters in Brooklyn. However, is it beyond expectation to want able to order something online and have it delivered to your door in a day or two; computers, phones, food, tools, groceries, services…, the list is endless? I would prefer to read that as the opportunity is unlimited, but I can’t quite manage it right now 😢.

Many changes in life(1)

I wanted to highlight a couple of tweets and articles that show that changes are being made, and made very quickly indicating what might be in the post-pandemic world we are currently moving towards.

I enjoyed the tweet, the idea that a younger generation is taking it in their stride, compensating and coming up with simple, but effective ideas to continue. Dating is so essential for the world, and self-containment and confinement couldn’t be more damaging if it tried. But as witnessed above, we as humans seem to find a solution.

This next tweet is from Stewart Butterfield. Stewart is the CEO of Slack, a collaboration tool I’ve mentioned before. In a lengthy Twitter thread, he documented how his company went from a couple of million Daily Active Users (DAUs) to over 11 million in the space of a couple of weeks.

But this tweet identifies perfectly the shift Business is facing, independent to this pandemic. He estimates that the shift from email communication, which is that backbone of so many companies today, is moving to channel communications and that that has accelerated by possibly 18 months as a result of this pandemic. I would argue that it has accelerated change even faster than that.

Channel-type communication is so much better for teams, whether they are 2 meters away from you, or two continents. It's two-way, it’s subject filtered, it’s asynchronous and synchronous at the same time and most of all, is personable, unlike email —how many times have you written an email, forgot the smiley, and the recipient completely missed the point? 

The feedback loop of interaction is so much better, and it can help better articulate how people in the team feel about each others’ efforts and implication. All done seamlessly, easily, taking next to no time. In years past, managers and co-workers would need to draft and double-check an email to give feedback for the project you were working on together. If that feedback was personal, there were just too many risks associated with getting the tone wrong.

Other innovations are being fast-tracked with some surprising results. The uncanny valley that technology so often creates, is being redesigned at a breakneck pace. Things that were proposed over ten years ago that were rejected by the world for their insensitivity or downright weirdness at the time are readily accepted today in this climate of pandemics. My son had his first virtual class though Hangouts this morning. I’d been pressing the education system for years to innovate and use virtual learning, all to no avail. How life changes.

As another example, have a read of this article on onezero hosted on Medium, Coronavirus is spurring a new era of digital funerals. It will become more and more acceptable, not only from a health standpoint but as we continue to distance ourselves from our birth towns, looking for better opportunities and lifestyles, we will need these tools to help us reconnect back home when needed. From a personal point of view, I would have liked to have had this option a few years ago when my Grandmother passed away, and I was regrettably, unable to make the transatlantic journey back to the UK for the funeral for time and financial reasons. Or this article on Protocol, What it feels like to be laid off on Zoom during this crisis. Ouch! Will we look at this with the same distaste in the near future?

From a more local perspective, this crisis has shown us many things, things we honestly didn’t want to face.

Take the aforementioned disaster preparedness. The number of companies that I consulted for that reduced their disaster recovery budgets to peanuts because they didn’t see the value, left me feeling dismayed. Apparently, volcanoes, earthquakes and hurricanes are a non-issue. Go figure. 🤷‍♂️ But Coronavirus has called their bluff, and it’s not looking great for some.

Flexible working should have been the norm ten years ago. The tools existed back then, but they were rudimentary and only slowly developed. Why did it take so long? Because there was no demand, no incentive. Software companies had no audience to sell to. Companies with ancient attitudes wanted “bums on seats” rather than productive and collaborative workers because they didn’t trust them OoO (2). You must trust them now though! Slack and Teams would have arrived earlier if Businesses had been more grown-up about it.

I’ll leave you with one last thought. I wrote about Fortnite hosting a live mega-concert for Marshmellow, with something like 10.7 million concert-goers — not counting the countless Twitch streamers (estimated at a total of 27 million people all told). I wondered then, as I do now, how could this technology be used for more “serious business” purposes. I was a regular attendee of Microsoft Conferences over the last 13/14 years, conferences that attract up-to 25 000 attendees in one place I have a badge and a letter to prove it 🏅. So how could Microsoft replace these conferences with an entirely digital experience? One thought that comes to mind is precisely that blueprint trialled by Fornite.

Minecraft, Microsoft’s online virtual world game/education platform, brags over 90 million monthly active users. Its scale is enormous, more significant than anything we can create in the real-world, for cost, permit and land constraints. Estimates of between 1 and 10 million simultaneous users are suggested. Microsoft’s “virtual” conference could be opened up for many more attendees offering Microsoft further reach than is physically possible and more interaction with its up and coming partners, resellers and developers.

Attending a recent webcast about virtual conferences, the speaker — who happened to be the organiser of the Virtual Island Summit — mentioned that the mere fact that the summit was virtual, allowed participation from an Island so remote that only a 12-day boat trip to South Africa (one that happened once every three months) was possible.

The impossible, made possible because of Digital Transformation.

If you enjoyed this issue of The Future is Digital Newsletter I’d appreciate it if you would share it with people you feel are interested 👇

Share

Visit the website to read all archived issues.

Thanks for being a supporter, have a great day.

––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

1 A song by Barrington Levy

2 Out of Office