What is a Digital-Native Company and Netflix & Canal+ Follow-up

In a rare and record-breaking event, Hurricane Lorenzo is the first Hurricane in recorded history to be as strong at such a Northern Latitude. Threatening parts of Ireland, the UK and possibly even mainland Europe, Lorenzo is not likely to remain a hurricane, but it is to bring much disruption to those areas in the next few days. Think The Great Storm of 1987. Stay safe.

Lorenzo is almost certainly one of the many side effects of global warming and is a subject I’m currently researching, especially the link between digital technologies, power and CO2 output. I’ve not finished… but it ain’t looking too good for Cryptocurrencies! 🏭

On to the news.

What is a Digital-Native Company?

I asked myself a fundamental question:

Can digital-native organisations do Digital Transformation?

I ask this question as it seems that the ultimate aim of Digital Transformation is to drive organisations to become digitally native.

In answering that question, I need to define what a digital-native organisation is. My attempt is the following:

A digital-native company is an organisation that extensively uses digital technologies throughout the entire value chain, from supply, design and development, innovation to distribution and marketing to the ultimate end of life of its products and services.

Looking at one extreme, a trader in a local market, we can reasonably conclude that the trader is unlikely to be digitally native. Sourcing and the supply chain are handled manually, often by getting into the van and driving around the various suppliers to purchase and collect goods. Stock handling too is a manual exercise when a storeroom/warehouse is involved; zero stock is not always possible at the end of trading. 

Marketing, if any, is additionally more of a human to human communication process, most often done in the form of handwriting today’s prices on a chalkboard propped up by a fruit box somewhere visible for passers-by. Selling too is unlikely digital as so many cash-based businesses are.

Distribution and delivery are also a manual process handed off to the buyer; it is his or her responsibility and charge to receive, check and transport the goods to their ultimate destination.

On the other extreme, if we look at a company like Microsoft, we could conclude that the fact that Microsoft was and is primarily a software development business selling digital goods that are distributed almost entirely by digital methods, it is therefore by definition a digital-native organisation. Microsoft’s products are by nature almost all digital, with some hardware mixed in, Xbox, Surface amongst others.

Most structures fit somewhere in between these two extremes. They have mostly implemented some digital tools to help in productivity, or for the financial management of the company, however consideration about the entire value chain and where digitising is helpful is not something that systematically performed.

What we all see is that there is much scope for non-digital native organisations to introduce digital transformation as a process to improve outcomes.

If we look at the previously cited local market trader, the opportunity to develop digitally is there — many potentialities to improve results to his or her bottom line. For example, the deployment of an internet-connected payment terminal linked to a cloud-based accounting SaaS app would allow the trader to spend less time in data-entry in the accounts system, which would likely be a significant gain in productivity. Not only are the gains visible in the prominent areas, but access to detailed data about sales might reveal, with some simple statistical analysis, facts about the buying patterns of clients’. Possibilities such as allowing the trader to manage stock levels and stock age may allow adjusting for seasonal or event-based peaks and troughs in sales. Waste management can be better accounted for and hence, healthily managed. We should all strive for that!

Microsoft itself is not immune to this tendency either. Since Satya Nadella took the helm of the company, he has implemented sweeping changes in the internal organisation emphasising the importance of Digital Transformation in what is mostly a digital organisation already. 

However, as I’ve highlighted before, Digital Transformation is not just about installing a new accounting system and saying you’re now digital. It’s about changing the culture of the entire organisation to think about productivity and the value chain from a perspective that allows the use of digital technologies in more innovative ways, solving for the jobs to be done, if you will.

Canal+ and Netflix follow-up

Following on from an agreement between Netflix and Canal+ to allow the latter to distribute the former’s content digitally, Canal+ is going all out with a massive over-the-air publicity campaign cycling many times per hour on its properties.

It is a tacit admission that the Netflix model is the one that is winning in the battle for eyes in France and Europe, Canal+’s new advertising campaign quite literally says:

“Canal+. Ca se regard comme <BLEEP>.”

Alternatively, in English:

“Canal+. You can watch it like <BLEEP>.”

If you hadn’t guessed, BLEEP is substituted to avoid saying “Netflix”. No attempt is made to hide the lips, so lipreading such a renowned brand name is child's play.

To me, the strategy is likely to ultimately devalue the Canal+ brand and possibly even contribute to a substantial demise forcing Canal+ into a content-production-only firm — it is very good at that too. Moreover, to make matters more complicated, presumably, the contract allows Netflix to stream Canal+ content!

Why would you pay (more) for Canal+ over an antiquated system that is only just getting to grips with the job to be done, whereas directly through Netflix you’ll be able to get the same content, assuming the bilateral agreement is accurate.

Remember, Canal+ is only offering a Netflix Standard Subscription bundled, which is limited to 2 devices simultaneously and HD streaming. Netflix offers more screens but also higher definitions for those cinephiles amongst us.

Microsoft’s October Hardware Event

At 10 am ET, Microsoft is set to announce a slew of updates to its hardware line mostly offered under the Surface branding. We already know a lot of what is going to be announced — with an unsurprising leap to CPU designs other than Intel’s — but there are still some unknowns. I am especially looking forward to their Digital Transformation story and how the new generation of devices helps businesses and individuals develop digitally. I may comment on what happened in a future newsletter, we’ll see.

In circling back to the initial question, — can a digital-native do Digital Transformation? — if it is not apparent to you now, the most critical part of Digital Transformation is not “Digital”; it’s Transformation…

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For now at least.

Calm, hot, humid days here in the Caribbean. The air seems to have been sucked-out by the recent storms.

Continuing the woes of old-world companies fighting the Goliath of the Internet, I look at the Canal+ ❤️ Netflix bromance and the competition not far behind.

Enjoy this one.

Canal+ bundles Netflix

In a surprise move and not widely reported, Netflix and Canal+ have signed a deal to allow Canal+ to distribute Netflix content through their TV subscription package for an additional cost. I’ll come back to pricing further down.

The offer is an extras package that is added on to a regular Canal+ subscription to supply a Netflix Standard subscription, in essence simplifying access to Netflix from your Canal+ Set-top box. A Netflix Standard subscription allows for 2 simultaneous devices to stream content in HD.

Canal+ is the leading television provider in France; however, it is having difficulties in keeping subscriber numbers since the advent of stiff competition from the likes of Netflix. This deal looks to be a play to strengthen its subscriber numbers by adding all the current and possibly new Netflix Subscribers to its numbers. Netflix is likely to count them as subscribers too. I’ll leave you to make up your ends if that is fair or not. According to some, Netflix currently counts around 6 million subscribers in France with Canal+ already falling behind with 5 million.

Regardless, there are two issues to the pricing model that is worth considering. The first is that Canal+ states that this pricing is unlikely to remain for long, a move that is likely to not go down well with subscribers. Read, prices are going up, it’s just a matter of time and whether or not the service is successful or not.

The second issue is that a Standard Netflix subscription in France currently costs 12€ per month, Canal+ is offering its bundling at an initial price of 15€. On the face of it, you’ll be paying 3€ per month more to have the “convenience” of watching Netflix without opening an app on your Television. There are other perks included that might justify the price, but that’s debatable.

The strategy is a little like Apple’s TV app offering, where the idea is to group your streaming television and movies subscriptions in one interface to reduce friction when you want to watch something. However, Canal+ will have difficulty competing with something that (admittedly only available to Apple users) is free.

There are other issues in this deal that have not surfaced yet; I’m trying to get more information going forward.

Data collection, unmentioned in any of the articles I read researching this topic and, considering it is central the way Netflix operates, I’m surprised no one has talked about it. Netflix collects and uses data on watching habits, which in-turn it monetises by producing original content that is impressively targeted to its audiences. The days of the Hail Mary strategy of producing a show and hoping it sticks are almost over. Today’s shows are highly curated, specifically targeting essential metrics. The general public has absolutely no idea this is happening! Again, judge for yourselves based on your moral compass, I’m not pronouncing either way.

The question is, how much data sharing between Canal+ and Netflix is in the deal?

If it is none, then the deal is virtually worthless to Canal+ unless their goal is to pump subscriber numbers to look good in front of investors. Pig Lipstick. 

If it is some or all, then it needs to be in a position to monetise that data to help it produce shows similarly to Netflix. You see the problem, it becomes a direct competitor once again, and once again, the result is likely to be the same as before, i.e., Netflix wins out.

Again, another example of an old-world organisation struggling with the difficulties in navigating rough and dark seas that is the Internet. And additionally an indicator that other media streaming organisations locally may enter the fray — Flow, Digicel?

OK, Netflix wins for now, but does it keep winning?

What is fascinating with this disruption of the Television industry comes back to a saying I’m fond of: Nothing exists in a vacuum.

While Netflix is growing subscribers and putting pressure on incumbent Television providers, particularly those attempting their forays digital-first subscriptions, Netflix is finding itself in an increasingly challenging environment itself. You may be forgiven for not knowing this, as the pressure Netflix is experiencing is from behind and not from you the subscribers.

Netflix boats 150 million paying subscribers worldwide, which is frankly, astounding for a company founded to mail DVDs to customers across the USA cheaper and more conveniently than going to a Blockbuster store!

Fun fact: They still mail out DVDs to 2.7 million, yes million, customers in the USA, and get this, it is incredibly profitable for Netflix adding nearly $2 billion to its income!

However, competition from others is starting to come online. Two notable announcements from Disney, with their Disney+ subscription at $6.99 per month in the US launching on the 12th November, and Apple’s AppleTV+ subscription at the same price and available in 150 countries. Disney and Apple together, provide rude competition for Netflix, not because of the content library or subscriber numbers, but because of the Cost of Goods Sold or COGS.

Disney is also the owner of franchises like StarWars, Pixar, Marvel, National Geographic and 80% of ESPN 

When Netflix started streaming, it inked deals with distributors and studios to digitise and pump bits down a broadband line with the realised promise of gaining viewer numbers for the shows on the service. That worked well for several years and catapulted Netflix into public perception as being a TV service.

As it gained subscribers, profit and consequently competition, Netflix had to find a differentiation stagey to stay ahead of the curve. It chose to produce its content in what is marketed as Netflix Originals, leaning heavily on the respected Netflix brand. Again, not existing in a vacuum only meant it was a matter of time before others would produce proprietary content, or as in Disney’s case, pivoted to a streaming service using its arguably more respected brand. Disney’s advantage is that it is already a great content producer, with a back catalogue that is the envy of just about any organisation in media. Perhaps the BBC is an exception, but that’s a different story.

So what is the real problem for Netflix going forward?

Content is not cheap to produce, and it is not getting any cheaper thanks to the competitive forces from Apple & Co. Netflix is currently running costs of Originals creation and acquiring other content at $7 in every $10, according to the Technology Business Editor in the The Times. Apple has pledged $6 billion in content creation. Studios, distributors and all makers of TV and Film are noticing and putting up prices on one hand, and production quality and complexity are expanding — increasing costs — as a strategy to stand out from the crowd.

Disney and Apple are not ‘just’ moving picture purveyors either. Disney’s empire is vast and diverse, allowing Disney to finance Disney+ from the profits of Disneyland, rights, trinkets and other merchandise. Apple similarly doesn’t rely on AppleTV+ subscribers to exist, which explains the offer for all new Apple hardware purchases to include a year of AppleTV+ for free. Your iPhone, iPad and Mac purchase essentially subsidises the new venture, until it can live independently off its earnings.

Classic disruption!

The Future is Digital Newsletter is intended for anyone interesting in learning about Digital Transformation and how it affects their business. I strongly encourage you to forward it to people you feel may be interested. If this email was forwarded to you, I’d love to see you onboard. You can sign up here:

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Disruption Theory is not just theory

The Atlantic Hurricane Season is in full swing, with the African tropical wave generator running at full power firing off potential hurricane storms every couple of days. Stay vigilant and stay informed.

Today, a tale of missed opportunity through short-sightedness and a story of a late starter on the digital journey which is most likely too little too late.

Read on.

Thomas Cook and the impact of not transforming

From the Sunday Times:

“Thomas Cook bosses will hold a crunch meeting today as the fate of the world’s oldest travel company hangs in the balance.

The board, led by chief executive Peter Fankhauser, has been battling to secure an extra £200m of rescue funding to keep the tour operator flying. It made a last-ditch appeal for a state bailout this weekend after its lenders threatened to pull out of a proposed rescue deal, but ministers are believed to be wary of propping it up.”

The outcome of that meeting I guess you already know is that Thomas Cook has is in administration, the worlds' first travel company being the victim of pressure from competitors with very low to no marginal costs.

Thomas Cook is additionally the victim of its decision not to transform into an agile, Internet-savvy business with consequences that run into thousands of job losses around the world and an estimates 150000 British holiday makes stranded unless the UK government can step into charter planes for the rescue, at an estimated cost of £100m.

Founded 178 years ago, Thomas Cook is a giant in the tourism industry, with a breakdown of its sales as 67.8% for flights, holidays, accommodation and insurance and 32.2% in airline services. At the end of September 2018, they owned 186 hotels and had a fleet of 100 aircraft. Its sales breakdown is split between the UK at 24% and the rest of Europe at 66% with Germany alone counting for 37.8%.

As you are no doubt acutely aware, the Caribbean is one of the group's leading destinations and many companies in the region are exposed to the risk of Thomas Cook's impending failure.

Thomas Cook failed to seriously take its business in the direction of digital, instead strategically opting to open and run 563 high-street sales shops, financing much of the expansion in debt that was in-part attractive due to historically low-interest rates in Europe, but servicing that debt, now at around £1.7bn, is expensive, even if it is relatively low, running at around £150m/year.

While the world was transforming digitally, Thomas Cook took the opposite route and is now paying the price with an impending doom unless they can finance their way out of the current hole.

Unfortunately, not not the first time for the group, in 2011, they found themselves in £1bn of debt with a restructuring plan and strategic plan was drawn up to transform and save the group. Fast-forward to 2019, and they are still having difficulties with their transformation.

The fault lies at the very top of the organisation, as is always the case in Digital Transformation. If the top of the tree doesn't get it or doesn't put in place the structure and culture to transform, no amount of effort will allow an organisation to implement and profit from digital technology.

Peter Fankhauser was brought on board in 2001 as CEO promising to use his experience in transforming companies:

"The reality was I knew a lot about transformation, a lot about restoring brands and transforming to the web."

Those words look like puff today, and a look at the board structure reveals not a single manager specialised or experienced in digital.

A failed merger and the digital opportunity

Sainsbury's, the UK supermarket giant, was unable to obtain regulators' accord for a merger with Asda, owned by the US mega-giant Walmart, and as a consequence has decided that now is the time to transform digitally.

Like most Supermarket companies, the pressure to sustain growth in the originally non-digital world has forced them to seek out multiple revenue streams. As such, most of today's supermarkets are no longer distribution and retail businesses, they are that of course, but they are also providers of fuel, insurance, banking and luckily for them, collectors of data.

Since the dot-com era, supermarkets were one of the first businesses to understand the value of data collection and deriving value from it. They quickly implemented loyalty cards and tied offers to the sustained use of them when purchasing groceries. Loyalty cards worked exceptionally well in the beginning, and it is hard to find a supermarket today that doesn't have some form of loyalty scheme.

Like most successful ideas, there are usually many people that have the same idea at around the same time, and as a result, multiple loyalty schemes appeared around that period. Again, like always, various differing implementations lead to a consolidation opportunity, which is precisely what happened when Nectar was founded in 2002 with a value proposition of centralisation of loyalty schemes and hence increased value to users by saving on multiple purchases in many locations simultaneously.

Nectar currently boasts 14 partner companies and over 400 online retailers amongst its offer and was initially conceived to replace four loyalty schemes, of which Sainsbury's was one. In 2018 Sainsbury's purchased Nectar seeing an opportunity to capitalise on the detailed data collection loyalty systems afford.

The problem for Sainsbury's is two-fold; the debt is crippling their opportunity to invest in digital transformation in a meaningful way that stymies reduced margins from its food distribution business. Bear in mind that food counts for 98.2% of its earnings, and like Thomas Cook also stuck in a bricks-and-mortar mindset, owns around 1400 retail locations with high fixed costs.

It is rumoured to sell off its banking arm to help finance digital initiatives, but that only counts for less than 2% of sales and is unlikely to fund a wholesale and profound transformation required to turn the ship around. Most suggest the strategy will be to transform slowly; however, it is unclear how much time is left.

Epilogue

These once giants of the retail industry, have found themselves in deep trouble in a digital world that they are finding challenging to navigate. With one falling in to administration today, with real-world consequences for its employees and customers, the other being pinched on both sides (from more nimble and digital competition and from users increasingly using digital-first services) it's hard to wonder why they didn't understand the inevitability of digital technology and disruption theory on their businesses.

Unfortunately, Thomas Cook and Sainsbury's are not the first, and they won't be the last.

The Future is Digital Newsletter is intended for anyone interesting in learning about Digital Transformation and how it affects their business. I strongly encourage you to forward it to people you feel may be interested. If this email was forwarded to you, I’d love to see you onboard. You can sign up here:

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I really do think you should take the time to read this book.

Talking to Strangers

I get to the heart of why seemingly innocuous encounters can turn into tragic events. It additionally makes you think about yourself and the encounters you have with those strayers around you.

20 September 2019 — French West Indies

Climate Change and Digital Transformation

Good afternoon,

I was about to continue the series on the Digital Transformation methodology for change in organisations, but developments in the France-Antilles situation and the hurricane season led me on a different path. I’ll come back to the methodology in a new email.

On to the update.

Follow-up: France-Antilles

A third proposition has surfaced in the last couple of days to take over the failing old-media organisation, as reported by RCI. The proposal is apparently unpopular as it appears to implement radical reductions in labour costs by reducing staff numbers from around 270 to just 40. The Unions are, understandably, unhappy, and there is a strong chance nothing will come from this offer that is trying to stem 400K€ per month in extra debt. The other option is complete failure with a loss of 270 jobs and, more importantly, the loss of the only daily newspaper in the French West Indies.

I’ve written about what went wrong and how previous strategic decisions inevitably lead to this situation and how others should see this as writing on the wall for their similar organisations. My opinion is based on the elements before my eyes.

It has emerged that the expensive investment of a new printing press made to diversify into other print markets. The absurdity and short-sightedness of this astounds me. Whether or not the machine purchased was productive is irrelevant — it reportedly failed regularly and forced the Newspaper to reduce the number of printed pages per run — as the hard reality of printing is that it is a dying practice.

The European Union, the French Government and many other authorities have mandated that printing non-essential documents be phased out immediately. So what would they print? Birthday Cards?

RCI's article (French), unsurprisingly given that it too is an old-media company, was off by a long way with its suggestions to save FA. It suggested entering the already saturated shop catalogue market where the only result can be a zero-sum game where everyone loses. If they enter the market to gain clients, they'll need to reduce prices; the competition responds with the same cuts under pressure as the customer's cost expectations are adjusted downwards, which in turn leads to lower prices and the ultimate failure of printing companies. Whoever holds their breath longest wins, but nothing is left in the market to monetise meaningfully at the end of the day.

RCI went on to suggest that the new market might generate funds but then in the next paragraph admitted that it is costly and challenging to deliver the printed articles to Guadeloupe and presumably Guyane (they didn't mention). At no point is anyone acknowledging the fact that the entire business model has to be re-thought out, starting from the position of the end-users. Start with the fundamental question:

What is the Job to be Done? 

Until they understand this fundamental question and design a value proposition that directly responds to it, then designs a business model that supports the value proposition, they are going to have a very rough ride, leading to inevitable failure.

As I said before, I believe the business is ultimately going to get bought; although for me, it is nothing more than re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Climate Change and Digital Transformation

I'm currently writing while a tropical wave develops in the ITCZ, with a trajectory passing over the Windward Islands according to the NHC. Digital Transformation, it seems, is both a blessing and a burden on the climate. According to the World Economic Forum:

.. a number of challenges will need to be addressed if the full potential of digital transformation is to be realized; some relating to the environmental impact of digital technology itself. For example, e-waste is growing, resulting in lost potential value from reusing or recycling devices, ever-growing mountains of landfill and increasing volumes of toxic chemicals being released into the environment. According to a United Nations study, 40 million metric tons of e-waste was discarded in 2014, of which 7 million metric tons alone were from the United States and 6 million from China.

Data centers also contribute significantly to emissions due to their high power consumption and often inefficient cooling systems. Data centers currently consume 1.5 to 2% of global electricity, a rate that is growing at 12% a year. Consumption is projected to increase to 140 billion kilowatt-hours annually by 2020. That would be equivalent to the annual output of 50 power plants and create carbon emissions of nearly 150 million metric tons of carbon annually.

The largest culprit of all is the cryptocurrency industry. However, let's look at the positive side for a moment to have some balance.

Digital Transformation can substantially help in the event of a climate disaster like the one we've seen in the Bahamas. At every stage, before, during and after, digital tools can help prepare, deal with and recover quicker, better and with more accuracy.

Preparation

Hurricanes are unique risks, in the sense that they are somewhat predictable given that we can discern their formation early and that new prediction models are more accurate thanks to computational advances like ML and a better understanding of the climate environment surrounding the storms; there are more sensors, better satellite imagery and many more advances.

For those of us in hurricane-prone regions, preparation often starts when the local authorities announce the coming of a storm, but much more is possible with digitisation. How many of you, for example, have a complete digital record of all essential documents, like your most-treasured photos, your insurance documents, your identity documents, to name a few? Do you store them out of the region in a safe — from natural disasters — and secure — sufficiently protected by 2FA and encryption — environment? I know I could do better!

What about personal belongings? Have you extensively audited your hi-fi, television, kitchen appliances, computers, phones, paintings, the list is endless? If the worst doesn't happen, how can you justify to your insurance company the real value? Currently, insurance companies tend to allocate an envelope in the event of a disaster, but as more and more issues are going to arise as a result of climate change, insurers are going to become ever more strict in the allocation of indemnities.

An opportunity exists for new business models, whereby insurers take in to account the accurate inventory list to adjust premiums and payouts accordingly. In the US, health insurance companies are already making Apple Watch and other activity tracking devices available to their customers with the promise of reducing their premiums. In Europe and further afield, devices in cars track driving behaviour with benefits not only to the driver in terms of cost reduction for insurance but for all drivers on the road with reduced accident potential. As someone who suffered a significant head-on collision and is lucky to be here, I would like to see that in more extensive use.

There are other natural risks that we cannot predict with much accuracy currently, earthquakes, tornadoes, flash floods as examples. A digitalised inventory tool using your smartphone's camera, machine learning and access to an extensive product database like Amazon's would simplify and speed up the process. Imagine pointing your phone at an article, pressing the shutter, the image treated by AI to add its make and model to your "In case of disaster" list that you share with your insurer. Incidentally, I'm not advocating the actual use of Amazon's database!

When disaster strikes

Better documentation and data collection during a disaster is another area where digitisation could help our collective understanding of what is happening. I'd read about a background app that uses the accelerometers in smartphones to measure the shaking earth and send that data to scientists studying tectonic and volcanic activities. I've no idea if it became a reality, but you get the picture.

Other digital sensors deployed at small cost would provide highly localised data to further our understanding of these phenomena. I am seriously toying with the idea of setting up a weather station in my garden and sharing that data with weather experts.

Recovery

Like for the inventory process before-disaster, the same application could be used to file claims with images showing the before and after the situation with Geo-tagging confirming the claims' sincerity. I say this as fraud is a common occurrence after disaster strikes leading to a lengthening of claims treatment for all victims, not just those attempting to gain something from the situation. Specialist DR offers like those from KPMG have embraced Digital Transformation to streamline claims through the use of analytics and automation.

The use of AI to cross-asses claims for inconsistencies with a regions' or cities damage claims is currently common practice. KPMG can even deploy drones to compare the before and after images coming up with estimates (that go through further validation) of the damage and the potential value of the insurance bill. These are, highly specialised applications, but they give you a taste of what is to come further down the line when the democratisation of the technology results.

Digital is additionally helping with relief efforts after disasters; we've seen digital mapping used to identify those in need in Haiti after the earthquake, online donation systems (beware of frauds) for victims of hurricanes and sites like stormCARIB digitally democratising meteorological information on impending storms.

One last word, I place no judgement on the information I've presented here, whether I think it is good, bad, justified or not, that's not the purpose of this article. I'll leave you to make up your minds. For now, let's hope this hurricane season passes without more trouble, we've had more than enough with Dorian.

The Future is Digital Newsletter is intended for anyone interesting in learning about Digital Transformation and how it affects their business. I strongly encourage you to forward it to people you feel may be interested. If this email was forwarded to you, I’d love to see you onboard. You can sign up here:

Sign up now

Visit the website to read all my articles and continue the discussion in the Slack group.

Thanks for being a supporter, have a great day.